720
AXPZ20 KNHC 150340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W extending from the
Caribbean seas across Nicaragua and into the far eastern waters,
moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 16N southward,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 16N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 06N98W to 12N116W to 1010 mb low near 11N124W to a 1011
mb low near 11N137W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 108W
and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 81W and 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale northerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 4 ft
are noted over the Gulf of California. Moderate winds are over
the forecast waters SW of southern Mexico with seas 4 to 6 ft
within mostly SE swell. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is
resulting in light to gentle winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. Seas
will peak to 10 ft tonight into Mon morning. Moderate SE winds
across the SW Mexican offshore waters will persist through
midweek. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California
peninsula Tue night and continue through most of the week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast through Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of 03N, mostly across the Central America and
Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft outside of
Papagayo within mostly S to SW swell. Moderate winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are occurring between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador. Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
over the Papagayo region through Tue before diminishing through
the remainder forecast period. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. Fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell is noted from
10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north
of the equator and W of 100W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N
between 115W and 140W. Southerly swell to 8 ft will spread north
of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through most of the
week. The swell in waters W of 135W will diminish by Wed.

$$
AReinhart