189
AXPZ20 KNHC 142001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W extending from the
Caribbean seas across Costa Rica and into the far eastern waters,
moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 16N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N94W to 13N115W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 13N between 85W and 89W, from 08N to 19N
between 103W and 114W, and from 06N to 14N between 120W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale northerly winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
to 6 ft, are over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the forecast waters SW of southern Mexico, where
seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient
is resulting in light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this week before
diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft through Mon. Fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish by this
evening. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters
will diminish tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are
forecast through Tue. Moderate winds will develop west of the
Baja California peninsula the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.
Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside
from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
over the Papagayo region through early this week before
diminishing slightly through the remainder forecast period.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
the middle of the week. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas
to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell is noted from 10N to 15N and W
of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator
and W of 110W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N
between 115W and 140W. Southerly swell to 8 ft will spread north
of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through early this
week.

$$
AL