Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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348 AXPZ20 KNHC 022119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure, analyzed near 12N105.5W, 1010 mb. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. Its axis is analyzed along 83W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N and E of 88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pres near 13N105.5W 1010 mb, to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 17N and E of 116W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and offshore the coasts of southern and western Mexico through the end of the week due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. The gradient between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California on Wed. Otherwise, the broad area of low pressure currently along the monsoon trough near 105W could develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it moves northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just offshore southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Thu, then increase to fresh to strong and continue through Fri mainly N of 05N. Seas will build to 8 ft in this area of stronger winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure of 1036 mb, located well north of the area near 43N139W. The ridge covers the waters north of about 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 20N. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds within 120 nm of a 1010 mb low that is along the monsoon trough near 12N105.5W. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W to continue through at least Thu night, with seas subsiding slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift westward by Wed to north of 28N and between 128W and 135W. $$ ERA