324
AXPZ20 KNHC 080906
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 08N along 92W moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active
north of 10N between 85W-90W, and north of 14N between 94W-96W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 95W-100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1010 mb low at 11N118W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is active from 09N-11N between 117W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough near of Guadalupe Island is breaking up the subtropical
ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle breezes
across the entire Mexican offshore waters, as observed in recent
scatterometer satellite data. Winds over the Gulf of California
are SE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the Pacific
waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California. Clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the
northern Gulf of California during the next two days, moderate
or weaker winds will persist through Thu across the Mexican
offshore waters. Looking ahead, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event may begin Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to
moderate. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador.
North of the monsoon trough, the winds are light to gentle. Seas
across the waters are 4-6 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a gap wind event may begin off northern
Central America Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N133W. The gradient
between the high and a trough near Guadalupe Island is supporting
moderate to fresh N winds north of 20N between 125W-135W, as
observed in recent scatterometer satellite data. Combined seas
are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE trade winds and 6-7 ft
combined seas are also evident south of the high pressure from
10N-22N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas
in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the trough near Guadalupe Island will persist
through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-8
ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the northwest
through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W. The
tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle to moderate
NE winds between 10N-22N through mid week. Looking ahead, SE
winds and swell will increase south of the ITCZ west of 130W by
Thu, with reinforcing NE winds and swell farther north.

$$
Christensen