Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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742 AXPZ20 KNHC 031540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure, analyzed near 14.5N104W, with a pressure of 1008 mb. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression could form within the next day or so while it moves northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is forecast to move over cooler waters on Friday, and thereafter further development is not expected. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the eastern part of the area has its axis along 88W north of 10N. The wave is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis N of 08N and E of 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to low pres near 14.5N104W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 07N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the low. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico with potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the offshore waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop offshore the coast of southern Mexico through the end of the week due to increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned broad area of low pressure described above under Special Features. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California today. These winds will diminish early on Thu. Fresh to strong north gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore from southern Colombia, Ecuador to the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador, and also offshore Colombia north of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Thu, then increase to fresh to locally strong and continue through early Fri mainly north of about 05N. Seas will build to 8 ft in this area of stronger winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure of 1034 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge covers the waters north of 15N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are north of 20N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in south swell. For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W to continue through Fri, than expand eastward through the weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift westward by tonight to north of 27N and between 126W and 136W. $$ ERA