186
AXPZ20 KNHC 081459
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 02N along 89W moving west at 10
kt. No significant deep convection is present near the tropical
wave this morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of the Costa
Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N86W to to 10N134W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N134W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N between
95W-100W and from 07N-12N between 105W-123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough near of Guadalupe Island is breaking up the subtropical
ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle breezes
across the entire Mexican offshore and Gulf of California waters.
Seas are 4-6 ft over the Pacific waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf
of California. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the
N Gulf of California through tomorrow, moderate or weaker winds
will persist through Thu across the Mexican offshore waters.
Looking ahead, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may begin Fri
with strengthening winds and building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to
moderate. North of the monsoon trough, the winds are light to
gentle. Seas across the waters are 4-7 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over the
Central American and Equatorial waters for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a gap wind event may begin off N Central
America Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 32N140W. The gradient
between the high and a trough near Guadalupe Island is supporting
moderate to fresh NE winds north of 20N west of 127W. Combined
seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE trade winds and 6-7 ft
combined seas are also evident south of the high pressure from
10N-20N west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas
in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the trough near Guadalupe Island will persist
through late in the week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 5-8 ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the
northwest through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of
125W. The tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle
to moderate NE winds between 10N-22N through mid week. Looking
ahead, large N to NE swell should move southward across the 30N
border west of 120W beginning on Fri.

$$
Landsea