123
AXPZ20 KNHC 060941
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0900 UTC.

...TROPCIAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 81W moving west at
15 kt. Scattered showers may be active north of 05N between 78W
and 82W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N85W to 09N87W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N117W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 08N between 88W and 93W, north of 12N
between 90W and 95W, and from 08N to 11N between 122W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Aletta is centered about 45 nm southwest of
Socorro Island, and continues to drift westward as it weakens.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. A scatterometer
pass indicated winds are mostly 15 kt near the center. No
significant convection remains near the center of the system.
Wave heights remain near 8 ft, but are subsiding. The low will
continue to weaken through today, and will likely dissipate
altogether through this evening.

Farther north, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow
across the northern Gulf of California persists due to relatively
lower pressure over the southern Colorado River Valley.
Elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters, a weak pressure pattern
across the region is supporting light to gentle breezes and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, aside from moderate winds pulsing to fresh over
the northern Gulf of California and off Cabo San Lucas, the
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through
mid week across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate SW winds
reaching the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica
beyond about 90 nm off the coast. Seas were estimated to be at
least up to 7 ft in this area, with a component of SW swell.
Scattered convection is ongoing off Guatemala, due to convergent
SW flow south of the monsoon trough and ahead of the approaching
tropical wave. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate
SW combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes and moderate combined
seas in SW swell will persist thereafter through mid week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the
forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent ship and buoy observations along with earlier
scatterometer data indicate fresh to occasionally strong S to SW
winds west of the Galapagos to 100W. Combined seas are estimated
to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther west, 1018 mb high
pressure is centered near 30N130W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in latest
scatterometer satellite passes. Moderate seas prevail across the
whole area.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
into Sun. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly by late today into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-
period south swell. Farther north, a trough will develop near
20N120W early in the week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to
the northwest through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west
of 125W.

$$
Christensen