364
AXPZ20 KNHC 070248
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 83W moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active in the SW flow
south of the monsoon trough ahead of the tropical wave, from 07N
to 09N between 85W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
12N86W to 09N90W to 10N105W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from
09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is active near the Gulf of Fonseca north of 12N between 87W and
89W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 10N
between 123W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The 1011 mb remnant low of Aletta is between Socorro and Clarion
Islands near 18N113W. No showers or thunderstorms are active near
the low. Farther north, a trough near Guadalupe Island is
breaking up the subtropical ridge across the region, resulting in
light to gentle breezes across the entire Mexican offshore
waters, except for moderate winds pulsing off Cabo San Lucas and
the northern Gulf of California. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in
mostly southerly swell.

For the forecast, aside from moderate winds pulsing to fresh over
the northern Gulf of California and off Cabo San Lucas, the
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through
mid week across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light breezes are noted north of the monsoon trough, with mostly
gentle breezes elsewhere. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW
swell. Abundant moisture and convergent SW winds into the monsoon
trough ahead of a tropical wave are supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 07N to 09N between 85W and 95W. The
approaching tropical wave is also supporting clusters of
thunderstorms near the Gulf of Fonseca.

For the forecast, the energy from the tropical wave will mostly
lift northwestward across Central America following Beryl, and
not progress westward much into the eastern Pacific. Little
change is expected through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail west of the Galapagos
Islands, as noted by recent ship reports from the R/V Sally Ride.
Combined seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area.
Farther west, 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 33N133W. The
gradient between the ridge and a trough near Guadalupe Island is
supporting moderate to fresh N winds north of 20N between 120W
and 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. Moderate
trade winds and 6 to 7 ft combined seas are also evident south of the
high pressure, from 10N to 25N west of 130W. Gentle breezes and
moderate seas in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, expect the moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to persist into Sun.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside
slightly Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Farther
north, the trough near 20N120W early in the week. Expect
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas between this
trough and higher pressure to the northwest through mid week,
mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W.

$$
Christensen