027
AXPZ20 KNHC 162201 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Corrected Remainder of

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Invest EP92: A broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is
identified on satellite imagery as scattered showers and
thunderstorms of moderate intensity from 14N to 17N between 125W
and 126W. Other similar convection lifting north- northeastward
is seen from 17N to 20N between 120W and 123W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft
were noted in overnight altimeter satellite data from 13N to 17N
between 122W and 126W. These seas are due to long-period south to
southwest. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form in the
next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward
across the western part of the basin. This system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W north of 08N to inland
eastern Guatemala and over the eastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Deep convection
near this wave is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section
below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 100W from 04N to 17N. It is
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 07N to 18N. It is
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 12N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 07N to 18N. It is
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm west of the wave from 14N to 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward
across central Panama to 08N82W to 09N95W to 10N112W to 16N119W
to low pressure near 14N126W 1008 mb to 11N132W to low pressure
near 12N140W 1011 mb. Numerous strong convection is seen within
180 nm south of the trough between 77W and 80W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either
side of the trough between 97W and 101W, within 60 nm south of
the trough between 85W and 89W, between 94W and 97W, between 110W
and 112W and between 117W and 119W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 130W and
138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas to near 8 ft. The latest ASCAT pass shows
light to gentle winds prevailing across the rest of the Mexico
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Moderate
winds are likely occurring around the southwest Mexico coast.
Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are mostly 4 to 6
ft within mixed swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore
waters, seas range 5 to 7 ft within mixed swell. Over the SW and
southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside
of Tehuantepec within SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas
are to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong to northerly winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through this morning,
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon and
becoming light and variable tonight. Seas will continue to
subside across the Gulf today. Moderate SE winds across the SW
Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed night. Moderate
winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula tonight
and continue through most of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to strong with seas
5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 05N,
including across most of the Central America and Colombia
offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 6 ft outside of Papagayo within
mixed swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft in S to W swell are occurring in waters S of 05N, including
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central
American offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted
off the coast of Colombia and into the nearby offshore waters,
including portions of the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish this afternoon, then pulse to fresh
tonight. Winds will then diminish to moderate through the
remainder of the week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
will prevail between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will
expand across the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama by Wed
through Fri night. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

See the Special Features section for information on Invest EP92.

High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 22N and west
of about 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 23N to
31N and W of 110W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon
trough. Outside the seas related to the Special Features system,
seas to 8 ft due to mixed SW and NE swell are present from 10N
to 15N and W of 120W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north of
the equator to 05N and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N
between 115W and 140W through most of the week. Seas of 8 ft in
mixed N and S swell will spread north of equator to 10N and
between 115W and 120W through Wed, and diminish by Wed night.
The swell over the waters west of 135W will diminish by this
evening.

$$
Aguirre