906
AXPZ20 KNHC 162205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Invest EP92: A broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is
identified on satellite imagery as scattered showers and
thunderstorms of moderate intensity from 15N to 17N between 124W
and 126W. Other similar convection lifting north-northeastward
is seen from 17N to 20N between 120W and 123W. Seas of 8 ft in
S to SW swell, as noted in latest altimeter satellite data, are
present from 13N to 19N between 122W and 129W. These seas are due
to long- period south to southwest. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form in the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward across the western part of the basin.
This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W north of 08N to inland
western Guatemala and over the southwestern Yucatan Peninsula.
It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Deep convection near this
wave is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 04N to 17N. It is
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 07N to 18N. It is
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 13N to 19N
and from 0N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N, and within 60 nm west of
the wave from 13N to 19N.

A tropical wave has its axis extending from 18N127W to 13N128W
to 07N128W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong strong convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 12N to 15N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave
from 15N to 17N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia westward
across central Costa Rica to 10N85W to 08N93W to 08N103W to
09N112W to 17N119W to low pressure near 15N127W 1008 mb to
12N132W and to 12N140W. Numerous strong convection is noted
from 05N to 09N between 77W and 79W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 87W and 95W, also within 120 NM north of the
trough between 110W and 112W, and within 60 nm south of the
trough between 110 and 114W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm south of the trough between 95W and 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The earlier fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region have diminished to mostly moderate speeds
during the afternoon. Seas have subsided slightly to 5 to 7 ft.
The latest ASCAT satellite data passes show light to gentle winds
prevailing across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters,
including the Gulf of California. Moderate winds are likely
occurring around the southwest Mexico coast. Seas across the Baja
California offshore waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft due to mixed SW
and NW swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore waters, seas
range 5 to 7 ft due to mixed swell. Over the SW and southern
Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside of
Tehuantepec as generated by long-period SW swell. In the Gulf of
California, seas are to 3 ft, except in the extreme southern
Gulf of California, where higher seas of 3 to 5 ft exist due
to long-period SW swell.

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become
light and variable tonight. Seas in the Gulf will subside a
little, to 4 to 6 ft on Wed. Moderate SE winds across the SW
Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed night. Moderate
winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula tonight
and continue through most of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo have diminished to fresh
speeds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of 05N, including across most of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 6 ft outside of
Papagayo primary from long-period SW swell. Moderate to locally
fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to W swell as
detected in altimeter satellite data passes, exist over the
waters S of 05N, including between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central
American offshore waters S of Costa Rica and over northern
Panama. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
occurring offshore Colombia, reaching westward to near 82W and
from 05N to 08N.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo will begin a diminishing trend starting Wed as they
become southerly. These winds become moderate NE to E on Sun
night. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail
between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
through most of the week. These winds will expand across the
offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama by Wed through Fri night.
Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for information on Invest EP92.

High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 22N and west
of about 120W. Light to gentle winds are N of 22N and W of 110W.
Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Outside the seas
related to the Special Features system, seas to 8 ft due to
mixed SW and NE swell are present from 10N to 15N and W of 120W.
SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator to 05N
and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh trade winds
north of the trough to 22N and west of 120W will shift westward
through the end of the week. Seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S swell
will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W
through Wed, and diminish by Wed night. SW monsoonal winds will
freshen east of about 102W beginning late Wed, with seas building
to 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre