552
AXPZ20 KNHC 110210
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 07N to southwestern
Mexico near 104W, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted offshore at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N97W to 10N121W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 94W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-14N and W of 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the discussion waters,
resulting in light to gentle breezes across most the Mexican
offshore waters per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with
moderate winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft in S
swell over the open Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week, increasing
slightly this weekend. These winds will build rough seas by the
weekend. A surge of southerly fresh to at least strong winds may
develop in the northern Gulf of California Thu night associated
with deep convection moving off Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly
flow will prevail across the Gulf of California Fri night through
Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, with
mainly moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with moderate to fresh SW winds well offshore Costa Rica and
western Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas
across the waters are in the 4-6 ft range in S swell, except 3-5
ft offshore Colombia to 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop in the
Papagayo region Thu night through the weekend, possibly near
gale at times with building seas. These winds and seas may spread
westward to the waters well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador
by early Fri. Southerly swell may build seas slightly offshore
Ecuador this weekend. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered well northeast of the
area near 41N139W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft
are noted over the NW waters, mainly north of 22N and west of
130W per recent altimeter data. Moderate or weaker winds and seas
in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere, in southerly swell except
mixed with northerly in the NW and W-central waters.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas north of the 20N and west of 125W through the end of the
week. Tradewinds will be gentle to moderate NE winds between
10N-22N through the end of the week. Looking ahead, large N to NE
swell should move south of 30N and west of 120W beginning on
Fri. Southerly swell to 8 ft may reach north of equator to 10N
and between 100W and 130W this weekend into early next week.
Winds may freshen south of the ITCZ and west of 110W early next
week.

$$
ERA