968
AXPZ20 KNHC 170919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W north of 06N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Deep convection near this wave is
discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 105W from 06N to 16N, moving
W at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 06N to 18N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
13N between 120W and 123W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 129W from 07N to 18N, moving
W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at
this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N100W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 16N126W to
11N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 79W and 87W and from 06N to 12N
between 89W and 109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are likely prevailing off the Baja California
coast, with the latest ASCAT capturing moderate winds off the
SW Mexico coast. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to locally
moderate winds are noted. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore
waters, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas across the Baja
California offshore waters are mostly 5 to 6 ft due to S and SW
swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore waters, seas range 5
to 7 ft within S to SW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico
offshore waters, seas are 5 to 7 ft generated by long- period SW
swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft, except in
the extreme southern Gulf of California, where higher seas of 3
to 5 ft exist due to long- period SW swell.

Thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern
Oaxaca offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate winds will pulse west of the Baja
California peninsula tonight and continue through Fri night, with
fresh to locally strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. Northerly
swell will bring rough seas to Baja California waters north of
Punta Eugenia late in the weekend. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves W to WNW at 10
to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours and 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to strong along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 09N,
including near the coast across most of the Central America and
Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 5 to 6 ft outside of
Papagayo primary from long-period SW swell. Moderate to locally
fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell are
noted over the waters S of 05N, including between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central
American offshore waters. The stronger thunderstorms are noted
from Costa Rica to offshore Colombia, N of 03N and E of 88W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish this afternoon. Winds will pulse
moderate to locally fresh tonight before diminishing to light to
gentle by Thu night. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
will prevail between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will also
occur in the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama tonight
through Fri. Southerly swell will bring rough seas to the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters later in the
weekend.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 16N126W with a central pressure of
1008 mb. Scattered showers within 100 nm of the low. Moderate to
locally fresh winds with seas to 8 ft are occurring around the
low.

Meanwhile, high pressure covers the area north of about 20N
anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure near 32N134W. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated
with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate trade winds from
north of the trough to near 24N and west of about 115W. Light to
gentle winds are N of 24N to 31N and W of 100W. Moderate winds
are south of the monsoon trough. Seas 5 to 7 ft are present
across most of the East Pacific waters. Seas near 8 ft within SW
swell is occurring well NW of the Galapagos Islands near 06N99W.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds north of the
trough will increase by the weekend as the pressure gradient
increases. Seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S long- period swell will
linger around the equator through most of the week, with swell
bringing rough seas to waters S of 04N by the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While a tropical depression could still form during the next day
or so, the window for further development is closing with
stronger upper level winds and cooler waters anticipated on
Thursday. The system is forecast to move WNW at 10 kt across the
western part of the basin. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and 7 days.

$$
AReinhart