959
AXPZ20 KNHC 140832
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W extending from the
Caribbean seas across Costa Rica and into the far eastern
waters, moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 16N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to 11N137W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N and E of 87W, and from 06N
to 17N and W of 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale northerly winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
peaking to 7 ft, are over the Gulf of California. Moderate to
fresh winds are over the forecast waters S of SW Mexico, where
seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient is resulting in light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5
ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week before
diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft today and Mon. Fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish Sun.
Moderate to fresh SE winds will move across the SW Mexican
offshore waters through today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
are forecast through Tue. Moderate winds will develop west of the
Baja California peninsula the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.
Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside
from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
over the Papagayo region through early week before diminishing
slightly through the remainder forecast period. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will continue between
the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the middle
of the week. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 115W. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are between 04N-10N. Moderate to fresh SE winds
are noted S of 04N. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in N swell N of
27N between 130W and 137W. Another area of seas to 8 ft in SW
swell is noted along 12N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas
to 8 ft S of 01S and W of 110W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 10N
between 115W and 140W. Large northerly swell over the far
northern waters will subside today. Southerly swell to 8 ft will
continue to reach north of equator to 10N and between 115W and
120W through early this week. Winds may freshen south of the
ITCZ and west of 110W by early week.

$$
ERA