360
AXPZ20 KNHC 151554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 08N to inland
western Guatemala. It is moving westward at about 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180
nm east of the wave from 14N to 17N and within 120 nm west of the
from 14N to 17N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 08N to 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 06N to 17N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis from northern Colombia, westward to
southern Costa Rica and continues to 10N85W to 05N98W to
10N108W to 13N116W to low pressure near 11N129W 1009 mb
to low pressure near 11N138W 1010 mb and to west of area
at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen within 180 nm south of trough between 108W and 111W,
within 120 nm south of trough between 118W and 127W, within
60 nm north of trough between 119W and 122W and between 125W
and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
north of trough between 138W and 140W, and also within 30 nm
north of trough between 94W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale northerly winds persist in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including
the Gulf of California. Seas across the Baja California offshore
waters are 4 to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. Over the SW and
southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside
of Tehuantepec within SE swell. In the Gulf of California, seas
are to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the strong to near gale winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will diminish slightly to fresh to strong speeds
this afternoon, continue into early Tue, then diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds Tue afternoon and become light and variable
Tue night. Seas of 10 ft will continue this morning and subside
below 8 ft by tonight. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican
offshore waters will persist through Wed. Moderate winds will
develop west of the Baja California peninsula Tue night and
continue through most of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of 02N, including across most of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft outside of
Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft within S swell are occurring between the Galapagos Islands
and Ecuador. Strong thunderstorms are impacting areas off the
Colombia coast and near the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail
over the Papagayo region through Wed morning before diminishing
through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. Fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 19N and W of 120W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 19N to 31N and W of 110W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell is noted from
10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north
of the equator to 05N and W of 95W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N
between 115W and 140W. Southerly swell to 8 ft will spread north
of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through most of the
week. The swell in waters W of 135W will diminish by Wed.
Meanwhile, the tropical wave that is near 114W as described above,
or several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula, continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development in the next couple of days and a
tropical depression could form mid-to late-week as the system
moves west-northwestward across the central and western portions
of the basin. This system has a low chance of development in 48
hours and a medium chance in 7 days.

$$
Aguirre