067
AXPZ20 KNHC 152319 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of wave that is inland eastern Honduras and
Nicaragua, with axis near 84W, extends southward to near 07N. It
is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are near
its southern portion. Deep convection is increasing over most
of Nicaragua, eastern Honduras and northern Costa Rica.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 08N to inland
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Only
isolated showers are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from
07N to 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 14N to 17N.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave
from 14N to 17N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia, westward
to southern Costa Rica and continues to 10N85W to 06N98W to
10N108W to 15N115W to low pressure near 11N128W 1012 mb to low
pressure near 11N137W 1011 mb and to west of area at 10N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
180 nm south of trough between 118W and 121W 108W, within 120
nm south of trough between 115W and 119W and within 60 nm north
of trough between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm north of trough between 124W and 126W, and within
120 nm north of trough between 108W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
as seen in an ASCAT satellite pass. Seas with these winds are
peaking to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of
California. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are 4
to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico
offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside of Tehuantepec
within SE swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong to northerly winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue into early Tue, then diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds Tue afternoon and become light and
variable Tue night. Seas to 8 ft in the Gulf will subside to
less than 8 ft late tonight. Moderate SE winds across the SW
Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed. Moderate winds
will develop west of the Baja California peninsula Tue night and
continue through most of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The earlier fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region have diminished to fresh speeds this afternoon.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of 02N, including across most of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft outside of
Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
within S swell are occurring between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
tonight and Tue night in the Papagayo region, then diminish
through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. Fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near
22N and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of
19N to 31N and W of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE
swell are noted from 10N to 15N and W of 135W. SW swell is
bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator to 05N and W of 95W.
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N
between 115W and 140W. Seas of 8 ft in mixed N and S swell
will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W
through most of the week. The swell in waters W of 135W will
diminish by Wed. Meanwhile, the tropical wave that is near 116W
as described above is anticipated to merge with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula along the monsoon trough
near 11N128W within the next day or so. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development after that occurs, and a
tropical depression could form during mid to late week as the
system moves west-northwestward across the central and western
portions of the basin. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days.

$$
Aguirre