523
AXPZ20 KNHC 062059
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 06N along 81W moving west at
10 kt. Scattered showers may be active north of 02N and E of
84W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N and E of
106W, and from 06N to 11N between 123W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening low is analyzed near 18N113W, 1011 mb. This low is
expected to dissipate tonight. Recent scatterometer pass
indicated winds are mostly 15 kt near the center. No significant
convection remains near the center of the system. Moderate seas
prevail near the low.

Farther north, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow
across the northern Gulf of California persists due to relatively
lower pressure over the southern Colorado River Valley.
Elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters, a weak pressure pattern
across the region is supporting light to gentle breezes and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, aside from moderate winds pulsing to fresh over
the northern Gulf of California and off Cabo San Lucas, the
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through
mid week across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate SW winds
reaching the offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica
beyond about 90 nm off the coast. Seas were estimated to be at
least up to 6 ft in this area, with a component of SW swell.
Scattered convection is ongoing off Guatemala, due to convergent
SW flow south of the monsoon trough and ahead of the approaching
tropical wave. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate
SW combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes and moderate combined
seas in SW swell will persist through mid week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast
waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh S to SW winds prevail west of the Galapagos Islands.
Combined seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther
west, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 31N132W. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds W of 123W, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are also
noted S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Moderate seas prevail across
the whole area.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough into Sun.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside
slightly by this evening into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period
south swell. Farther north, a trough will develop near 20N120W
early in the week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the
northwest through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of
125W.

$$
ERA