597
FXUS63 KEAX 140931
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Excessively hot and humid conditions continue through Monday
  evening, with max afternoon heat indices up to 112 degrees.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be
  possible, along with the chance for a few strong to severe
  storms.

- Much cooler and comfortable conditions are expected to arrive
  Wednesday and continue into at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated yet again
this early morning across the region. These are focused along
some sort of NE to SW oriented boundary, and have been fueled by
the eastern periphery of a low level jet along with around 2000
J/kg of surface based CAPE. These storms will continue to slowly
move to the southeast through the next few hours. A few
additional isolated showers may redevelop later this morning,
with this activity coming to an end by late morning. Meanwhile,
the stout anticyclone over the Four Corners region is projected
to strengthen a bit today, with higher 500 mb heights
overspreading our region from the west this afternoon. This will
help send high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s.
Additionally, breezy southwesterly low level flow will advect
moisture into the area, sending dewpoints into the lower to mid
70s. The combination of heat and humidity will yield maximum
afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range this
afternoon.

The stout anticyclone remains in place over the Four Corners
tomorrow, but gets pushed a little further south along with the
mid level flow becoming more zonal thanks to a trough pivoting
out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest. This trough will send
a cold front toward the region from the north tomorrow
afternoon, with models suggesting it reaching southern Iowa by
tomorrow evening. Between the influence of the anticyclone to
our west and possibly some compressional warming and moisture
pooling out ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures
are forecast to reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
max heat indices ranging from 105 to 112 degrees tomorrow
afternoon. There will be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening across far northern and
northeastern MO closer to the cold front, but otherwise the
region should remain dry. The cold front is projected to stall
out near the Missouri/Iowa border tomorrow night.

As we head into Tuesday, the trough pivots out of the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes region, and deepens further into
our region. This should allow the front to slowly make its way
southward through the daytime hours on Tuesday. The question is
just how quickly the front makes its way southward, as this
will have an impact on the high temperatures for Tuesday
afternoon. As of now, the forecast reflects cooler high temps
(mid 80s) across northern Missouri where the front should move
through by early afternoon, with warmer temperatures and heat
indices for locations along and south of Interstate 70 through
Tuesday afternoon. The front is likely to stall Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning somewhere in the vicinity of Interstate
70 to the northern Ozarks due to the increasing opposing low
level jet. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances
for this time period, and with a stalled boundary, strong low
level jet, the chance for training storms, and PWAT values on
the order of 1.8" to 2.1", this will yield the threat for
locally moderate to heavy rainfall. As such, WPC has introduced
a Day 3 slight risk for excessive rainfall for late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning for much of the region south of US
Highway 36 and east of the KC metro. As of now, the DESI Grand
Ensemble only shows around a 15 to 20 percent chance of rainfall
exceeding 1" over this area, with less than 10 percent
probability for rainfall exceeding 2". However, the NBM
probabilities are a little bit higher, with the Sedalia to
Boonville area showing around a 10 percent chance for rainfall
exceeding 3 inches. In additional to the heavy rainfall threat,
there will be a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms
thanks to more than sufficient instability and just enough deep
layer shear to produce some organized updrafts.

Shower and thunderstorms should end from north to south
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as the cold front
finally pushes well south of our area. Cooler and drier air will
come behind the front, with troughing remaining in place aloft
and a 1024 mb surface high building into the Upper Midwest. This
will bring a welcomed reprieve from the heat, with highs in the
lower to mid 80s forecast for Wednesday. However, slightly
elevated moisture may hang around through Wednesday. By Thursday
and into Friday, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be
coupled with mid 50s dewpoints, making it feel quite
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A remnant cloud shield from the afternoon lingers over all TAF
sites, and is expected to remain VFR. Confidence has increased
in the timing of precipitation, with greatest confidence around
KSTJ during a period from 9-12z. Have included PROB30 groups for
terminals further south, as this precipitation may not be
robust enough to maintain a prevailing weather category during
this period. After the initial passage of precipitation,
conditions should remain clear for the rest of the period. Winds
will remain from the south, with gusts returning in the
afternoon and falling off by the evening due to mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>016-
     020>023-028>030-037-043.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ017-024-025-031>033-038>040-044>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Pesel