453
FXUS63 KEAX 050500
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly seasonal temperatures with gradually building humidity
  into the weekend. Heat indices will remain in the low to mid
  90s for the 4th of July weekend.

- A few rounds of thunderstorms are possible through Sunday
  morning. Isolated severe storms are possible (less than 15%
  chance) on Saturday evening.

- Unsettled pattern to start early next week with multiple
  chances for thunderstorms. Uncertainty still remains high with
  timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mid- to upper-level ridging remains dominant over the area this 4th
of July. The accompanying broad surface high centered over the
northeast U.S., will keep winds out of the south allowing for
increased moisture transport from the Gulf. This will result in
humid conditions continuing to slowly build as we head into the
weekend.

Isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon and early
evening anywhere in our forecast area (with one having developed
recently in Ray County). With limited shear, storms will be pulse-
like and brief. A strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, with
DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg and PWATs near 2 inches enabling
the development of water-loaded downdrafts. These storms are
diurnally driven and are expected to dissipate quickly with the loss
of daytime heating.

Convection developing over Nebraska and Kansas this
afternoon/evening will move eastward overnight and may last long
enough to work into our forecast area by tomorrow morning, aided by
a weak (25-35 kt) low-level jet (LLJ) with associated boosts in
moisture/lift. However, unfavorable timing (diurnal minimum in
heating) and an overall unfavorable environment (limited shear and
meager instability) should preclude severe weather with these storms
(which will instead likely be weakening as they approach/move
through the area).

Late Saturday evening into early Sunday, an H5 shortwave trough
pushes its attendant surface front through the area resulting in
another round of showers and storms. Moderate to strong instability
will be present (> 2000+ J/kg) and negligible inhibition leading to
ready development of vigorous updrafts during/after peak heating.
Once again, however, very limited shear (bulk shear values less than
20 kts) will keep storms pulse-like and disorganized. As a result of
this, the severe risk is low (though not zero) at this time. Some of
the strongest storms could produce an isolated strong wind gust
(DCAPE values 800+ J/kg) or a brief/torrential downpour (PWATs 1.75-
2+ inches). The timing of the front (moving northwest to southeast)
appears to be during the evening and early overnight hours Saturday
and Saturday night. Remaining uncertainties include frontal
position/timing as well as the duration of lingering effects of any
morning convection across the area. Confidence is highest with
thunderstorm potential in northern Missouri (outlined well in the
Day-2 SPC convective outlook). The front should move mostly through
the area by Sunday morning, keeping storm chances mostly south of
the area (though cannot completely rule out Sunday afternoon
convection south of I-70).

For the first half of next week, mid to upper level ridging builds
over the Four Corners region. An unsettled pattern is expected as
multiple shortwave troughs move through the developing northwest
upper flow, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms (with a
favorable pattern for ridge-riding mesoscale convective systems). An
upper-level low ejects eastward from northern California mid-to-late
next week that will keep storm chances elevated for our area during
this period. The LREF suggests daily chances (up to at least 40%)
for measurable precip next Monday through Friday. That being said,
there is a good amount of uncertainty concerning the movement and
strength of these features being this far out. Meanwhile, regarding
temperatures, the NBM suggests near seasonal temperatures for the
majority of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Remnant smoke linger below the inversion could result in
temporary reductions in visibility overnight. Short wave moving
across the Upper Midwest could lead to morning storms across
northern Missouri after 10Z. These showers could result in brief
reductions in visibility in heavy rain. Scattered storms are
possible south of highway 36, though confidence is not high
enough at this point to include in a tempo or prevailing group
so just have a prob30 at this point. More robust convection is
possible after 19Z, mainly east of the TAF sites but strong
storms could lead to MVFR visibilities and gusty winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT