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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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903 FXUS63 KEAX 120527 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely with time tonight. Some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall tonight into Monday morning. - More active pattern is expected this upcoming week with a series of disturbances moving through the region leading to scattered chances of thunderstorms as temperatures return closer to seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 On the large scale, upper level low pressure over the Hudson Bay continues to weaken and push east with relatively fast mid-upper level flow across the northern US. Short wave over the Dakotas has lead to the development of convection. This convection should attempt to work east-south east ahead of the wave, but scant instability will limit progression of storms. Broad warm air advection on the east side of the upper level ridge across the western US has lead to temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region. Southerly winds has lead to an increase in precipitable water, which will accelerate tonight as low level jet forms across the central plains. This increase in low level moisture will aid in the destabilization of the atmosphere, though most unstable CAPE values are largely expected to remain below 500 J/kg. With strong speed shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, the instability is the limiting component for a more robust severe weather event. Precipitable water values are expected to approach 2", allowing storms to be very efficient rain producers. Storms are expected to develop tonight ahead of the short wave moving from the Dakotas- Iowa- western Illinois. Increasing moisture and shear could lead to isolated/scattered storms developing in the evening hours, but more organized activity should hold off towards 06Z Monday immediately ahead/south of the approaching short wave. Storms should be fairly efficient rain producers, but given the relatively dry antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the storms, am not expecting flooding concerns outside of training. On Monday, precipitation is expected to shift east, but can`t entirely rule out some redevelopment tomorrow afternoon across central-eastern Missouri mainly along and east of the highway 63 corridor. In areas where clouds are able to at least partially clear, should see warmer muggier conditions develop with high temperatures warming into the 80s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on the nose of the low level jet both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The latest guidance suggests the focus Tuesday morning may be farther south across the southern plains, but Wednesday morning is more likely to see additional storms across north/central Missouri. Additional sporadic chances of storms continue into late week as upper level ridge tries to expand but continues to be held in check with a series of short waves moving across the upper level ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 First round of showers is moving eastward, more development is expected heading into the overnight hours. Ceilings will gradually drop to IFR by the early morning hours of Monday. Most precipitation activity should between 12z-14z. There is still moderate amounts of uncertainty with thunderstorm trends and timing through the overnight hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Krull