Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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420 FXUS63 KEAX 141704 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1204 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Excessively hot and humid conditions continue through Monday evening, with max afternoon heat indices up to 112 degrees. - Showers and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, along with the chance for a few strong to severe storms. - Much cooler and comfortable conditions are expected to arrive Wednesday and continue into at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have initiated yet again this early morning across the region. These are focused along some sort of NE to SW oriented boundary, and have been fueled by the eastern periphery of a low level jet along with around 2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. These storms will continue to slowly move to the southeast through the next few hours. A few additional isolated showers may redevelop later this morning, with this activity coming to an end by late morning. Meanwhile, the stout anticyclone over the Four Corners region is projected to strengthen a bit today, with higher 500 mb heights overspreading our region from the west this afternoon. This will help send high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, breezy southwesterly low level flow will advect moisture into the area, sending dewpoints into the lower to mid 70s. The combination of heat and humidity will yield maximum afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range this afternoon. The stout anticyclone remains in place over the Four Corners tomorrow, but gets pushed a little further south along with the mid level flow becoming more zonal thanks to a trough pivoting out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest. This trough will send a cold front toward the region from the north tomorrow afternoon, with models suggesting it reaching southern Iowa by tomorrow evening. Between the influence of the anticyclone to our west and possibly some compressional warming and moisture pooling out ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with max heat indices ranging from 105 to 112 degrees tomorrow afternoon. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening across far northern and northeastern MO closer to the cold front, but otherwise the region should remain dry. The cold front is projected to stall out near the Missouri/Iowa border tomorrow night. As we head into Tuesday, the trough pivots out of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, and deepens further into our region. This should allow the front to slowly make its way southward through the daytime hours on Tuesday. The question is just how quickly the front makes its way southward, as this will have an impact on the high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon. As of now, the forecast reflects cooler high temps (mid 80s) across northern Missouri where the front should move through by early afternoon, with warmer temperatures and heat indices for locations along and south of Interstate 70 through Tuesday afternoon. The front is likely to stall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning somewhere in the vicinity of Interstate 70 to the northern Ozarks due to the increasing opposing low level jet. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for this time period, and with a stalled boundary, strong low level jet, the chance for training storms, and PWAT values on the order of 1.8" to 2.1", this will yield the threat for locally moderate to heavy rainfall. As such, WPC has introduced a Day 3 slight risk for excessive rainfall for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for much of the region south of US Highway 36 and east of the KC metro. As of now, the DESI Grand Ensemble only shows around a 15 to 20 percent chance of rainfall exceeding 1" over this area, with less than 10 percent probability for rainfall exceeding 2". However, the NBM probabilities are a little bit higher, with the Sedalia to Boonville area showing around a 10 percent chance for rainfall exceeding 3 inches. In additional to the heavy rainfall threat, there will be a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms thanks to more than sufficient instability and just enough deep layer shear to produce some organized updrafts. Shower and thunderstorms should end from north to south Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as the cold front finally pushes well south of our area. Cooler and drier air will come behind the front, with troughing remaining in place aloft and a 1024 mb surface high building into the Upper Midwest. This will bring a welcomed reprieve from the heat, with highs in the lower to mid 80s forecast for Wednesday. However, slightly elevated moisture may hang around through Wednesday. By Thursday and into Friday, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be coupled with mid 50s dewpoints, making it feel quite comfortable. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 No aviation concerns this TAF pd as VFR conds are expected to prevail. A few-sct clouds btn 3-4kft will be poss thru 00Z aft which clr skies are expected. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts to 20kts thru 00Z when gusts will subside and winds back to the south around 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>016- 020>023-028>030-037-043. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ017-024-025-031>033- 038>040-044>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...73