830
FXUS63 KEAX 092039
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will bring showers to southeastern
  portions of the forecast area through this afternoon.
  Excessive rainfall should remain to the south and east of the
  region.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday
  afternoon, primarily in areas east of I-29 and north of I-
  70. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- Hot and humid conditions expected to return going into the
  weekend and through the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The remnants of Beryl are currently over southeast MO and expected
to continue its track to the northeast through IL. The northwestern
edge of Beryl has extended into our forecast area. In addition, a
weak surface convergent boundary on the west side of Beryl has lead
to the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms along and
east of the I-49/I-35 corridor. These showers and storms could
linger into the late evening. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms associated with Beryl are expected to stay to the
southeast of the area. Increased cloud cover from the storm should
help to keep high temperatures mild (low to mid 80`s) for today.
Beryl is expected to move to the east of the area later tonight.

A shortwave embedded in the flow could lead to the initiation of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. The main locations
for these storms are expected to be east of I-29 and north of I-70.
CAPE values ranging from 1,000-2,000 J/kg and bulk shear values
ranging from 30-40 knots suggest the potential for some strong to
severe storms. Model soundings show an inverted-v profile which
could point to the potential for a few strong storms with damaging
winds. These storms are expected to move out of the region by late
evening.

As an upper level ridge approaches the region from the west on
Thursday, a warming trend will begin. Winds at the surface will
switch to the south by Thursday morning and stay southerly through
the early next week. Thursday high temperatures are expected to stay
in the mid to high 80s. By Saturday, triple digit heat indices will
be scattered through the area. Sunday and Monday are expected to be
the hottest days with heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees F.
We will monitor conditions closely to see if heat headlines will be
necessary. Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF period.
Lowered ceilings are expected to remain to the east of the
terminals. Winds are currently out of the north but will become
light and variable later tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier