230
FXUS63 KEAX 110503
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
  this afternoon into tonight. The strongest cells may produce
  strong to severe conditions with strong wind gusts being the
  primary threat.

- Another round of isolated thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon
  through the night. Severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

- Increasing heat and humidity expected late this week into
  early next week. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the
  worst days with heat indices exceeding triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

In the upper levels, there is troughing just to the northeast of the
area and ridging over western CONUS. At the surface, winds are out
of the west with a surface low to the east. Currently, a mid-level
shortwave is moving through the area and some scattered
thunderstorms have developed. While CAPE values range from 2,000-
3,500 J/kg for northern MO (highest values over northwestern MO),
bulk shear values are very weak. Strong gusty winds seem to be the
primary threat at this time. Some cells have already produced 57 mph
winds. Some hail up to quarter-size is also possible with the
strongest storms. A severe watch has been issued for northern MO
extending as far south as a line from Randolph to Doniphan (KS).
These storms are expected to impact the area through the evening and
move out a little after midnight.

Another shortwave moves through the flow which could lead to an
additional round of showers and thunderstorms for the area Thursday
afternoon/evening. CAPE values through the area range from 1,500-
2,000 J/kg and lapse rates around 7 degrees C/km suggest decent
instability. However, bulk shear values ranging from 20-30 knots
point to storms with shorter lifespans and being isolated to
scattered in nature. Confidence is fairly low in the severe threat
at this time.

On Friday, a surface low develops to the west of the area, and
shifts winds to the south. With warmer, more saturated air to south,
expect heat and humidity to increase. Heat indices for Friday are
expected to remain just shy of triple digits. Friday night, a
thermal ridge noses into the area along with an intensifying low-
level jet combining to further drive heat and humidity. This will
lead to warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend. This setup
continues through the weekend into the start of next week. Heat
indices for Sunday and Monday are expected range from 100-110
degrees F. We will closely monitor conditions to see if heat
headlines will be necessary. Hot and humid conditions are
anticipated to last through next Tuesday. Next Wednesday, looks to
be pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail. Scattered convection
may redevelop now through 12Z and impact terminal space. Current
wind field is quite variable, but should generally become
easterly by sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Blair