438
FXUS63 KEAX 112024
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
324 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms
  this evening into tonight. The strongest cells may produce
  strong to severe conditions with strong wind gusts being the
  primary threat.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms through the end of the
  week.

- Increasing heat and humidity expected this weekend into early
  next week. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the worst days
  with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The current synoptic setup is defined by troughing to our northwest
and ridging over western CONUS. At the surface, a low has developed
to the southwest over the OK/KS border. The associated warm frontal
boundary is currently residing over central MO. A mid-level
shortwave is expected to move through the area later this evening
and interact with warm front. This will aid in the development of
the expected showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may have the
potential to produce strong to severe conditions south of I-70 this
afternoon and evening. CAPE values ranging 1,000-2,000 J/kg and bulk
shear values from 25-30 knots suggest strong storms with short
lifespans. The main threats for now are strong to damaging winds and
hail. These storms are expected to move east and weaken through the
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger until early
tomorrow morning. Coverage of these weak and scattered storms may
extend north of I-70 and into far northwest MO.

Friday and Saturday will both have chances for showers and storms as
shortwaves embedded in the flow move through the area. Some strong
to severe storms may be possible for the whole area, however, storms
are expected to be scattered in nature. CAPE values range from 2,000-
3,000 J/kg for both days, however bulk shear values stick around 20-
30 knots which may lead to a high CAPE/low shear environment. This
may lead to strong, short-lived storms. Also, a decent capping
inversion is present which will present a hurdle for convection. If
thunderstorms do initiate, strong to damaging winds and hail seem to
be the main threats.

Saturday night, a thermal ridge noses deeper into the area along
with an intensifying low-level jet combining to further drive heat
and humidity. Heat indices for Sunday and Monday are expected to be
the highest ranging from 100-110 degrees F for majority of the area.
This setup persists through the start of next week and will lead to
warmer temperatures through Tuesday.

As a surface high drops further south from central Canada, over
western MN, our winds will shift to the northeast advecting cooler,
drier air through the region. This will lead to more pleasant
conditions as heat and humidity decrease. High temperatures, mid to
late next week, look to settle back to the mid to high 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration of the TAF
period. A chance for showers and thunderstorms exists later this
evening, however at this time they are expected to stay to
south of I-70 so they were left out of the more northern
terminal TAFs. Winds are expected to shift to the south tomorrow
morning. A gust to 15 mph will be possible through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier