956
FXUS63 KEAX 142320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Excessively hot and humid conditions continue through Monday
  evening, with max afternoon heat indices up to 110 degrees.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible tomorrow night
  across north central and northeastern Missouri where large
  hail and damaging winds will be the main threats

- Strong storms will be possible again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning however, the biggest threat may be for flash
  flooding and river flooding for areas along and south of
  Interstate 70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A upper level ridge of high pressure axis is centered over the Four
Corners area this afternoon with the local area on the eastern
periphery of this feature. That coupled with modest WAA is aiding in
highs rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Couple those
temperatures with dewpoints in the mid 70s and heat index values are
ranging between 100-110 degrees. Tomorrow, the upper level ridge
will slowly build east with the axis over the eastern Rockies. This
will provide additional height rises over the area with continued
WAA at the surface allowing highs to rise into the mid 90s to near
100. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will rise
into the 105-110 range. Tomorrow night a upper level trough will dig
from the Canadian Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. This will sag a
cold front into the area where 2000-3000J/Kg of MUCAPE will be in
place. In concert, a southwesterly LLJ will nose into the area.
These ingredients will allow for storm develop some of which could
be severe with damaging winds and large hail the threats. The best
chances for severe weather will be across north central and
northeastern Missouri. Storms are expected to diminish as the the
LLJ weakens Tuesday morning. The aforementioned cold front will
continue to sink through the area during the day on Tuesday with
evening as another LLJ develops and nose into the area. This will
allow storms to again develop along the front. A few strong storms
may be capable of marginal hail and gusty winds however, the bigger
threat may be flooding as the LLJ may act to hang the front up
across the southern CWA.

Wednesday morning storms should weaken as the LLJ does and the cold
front will finally push south of the area as Canadian surface high
pressure builds in behind it. This will make for much more
manageable temperatures come Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. This surface ridge of high pressure will remain in
control through Saturday making for very comfortable summer
conditions with highs remaining in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions expected for the duration of the forecast
period, with cloud cover pushing off towards the east. Gusts
have fallen off in and around all terminals. Winds will remain
southerly, with gusts expected once more tomorrow afternoon
with afternoon mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SPG/Pesel