609
FXUS63 KEAX 122319
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
  tonight into early tomorrow morning. The strongest storms may
  produce strong wind gusts and small hail.

- Increasing heat and humidity expected this weekend into early
  next week. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the worst days
  with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Currently, in the upper levels, troughing through the region
extending from the Great Lakes into southwestern TX. High pressure
currently dominates over western CONUS. At the surface, there is a
surface low over western KS. This has resulted in southerly winds
over our area which will help slowly help to increase temperatures
starting our warming trend. A mid-level shortwave is expected to
move through the area overnight. This could result in a few isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms early tomorrow morning. CAPE
values ranging from 2,000-3,000 J/kg and bulk shear values around 20-
30 knots suggests storms could produce some strong conditions but
will have shorter lifespans. At this time, the main threats seem to
be strong winds and small hail. Storms are expected to develop in
northwestern MO and migrate to the southeast. Storms are expected to
dissipate by late tomorrow morning before reaching I-70.

For Saturday, heat indices are expected to range from 100-105
degrees F and continue to rise through the weekend. Heat headlines
have been issued for Saturday afternoon through late Monday evening
for all of NW MO extending down into the KC Metro. Another round of
showers and storms is possible overnight with the passage of another
mid-level shortwave. No severe is expected at this time.

Saturday night, a thermal ridge noses deeper into the region from
the west in addition to an intensifying low-level jet. This
combination will further drive heat and humidity for the area. Heat
indices for Sunday and Monday are expected to be the highest ranging
from 105-110 degrees F for majority of the area. This setup persists
through the start of next week and will lead to warmer temperatures
through Tuesday.

Tuesday night, a surface high drops further south from central
Canada, over western MN. Winds across the area will shift to the
northeast pushing cooler, drier air through the region. This will
lead to more pleasant conditions as heat and humidity decrease
starting Wednesday. High temperatures, mid to late next week, look
to settle back to the mid to high 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Currently, there is scattered VFR diurnal cu across all
terminals. The potential for showers and thunderstorms near
terminals has shifted later in the period to around 9-12z, with
a greater focus over the KC metro sites. After this period,
guidance suggests prevailing weather conditions will shift off
towards the south. Otherwise, looking forward to a shift of
winds out of the south/southwest going into the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037-043.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...SPG/Blair