859
FXUS63 KEAX 130848
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected today through at least
  Monday, with max afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 110
  degree range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed within
the last hour toward central Missouri thanks to some subtle
forcing for ascent (associated with the far eastern periphery of
enhanced 850 mb flow) over a region characterized by around
2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Another area of convection is
ongoing further west across east central Kansas within the
presence of a 30 knot southwesterly oriented low level jet.
This activity is likely to expand further eastward into our
region later this morning, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving WNW to ESE through portions of the region
through around noon today (primarily south of Kansas City,
although the most recent HRRR run does suggest some showers
making it as far north as KC). Any lingering showers should come
to an end by early afternoon. Meanwhile, the stout anticyclone
out west migrates ever so slightly eastward over the Four
Corners, with higher 500 mb heights overspreading our area.
Temperatures this afternoon should reach the low to mid 90s, and
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, this should yield maximum
heat indices in the 100 to 106 degree range this afternoon for
portions of eastern KS, western, and northwestern Missouri. As
such, a heat advisory will go into effect at 1 PM today for
these areas.

The stout anticyclone remains in place over the Four Corners
tomorrow, with high temperatures forecast to reach the mid to
even upper 90s with max heat indices ranging from 100 to 110
degrees region wide. This will necessitate the expansion of the
heat advisory to cover the remainder of the CWA for tomorrow.
Hot and humid conditions continue into Monday, with
temperatures flirting with triple digits across far eastern KS
into western MO with upper 90s elsewhere, along with another
afternoon of 100 to 110 heat indices.

As we head into Tuesday, a trough pivots out of Canada into the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region, sending a cold
front toward the region from the north. The big question is just
how quickly the front makes it into the region, which will have
a large impact on the high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon.
Models have trended a bit slower with the frontal passage within
the last 24 hours, with the front projected to reach the US
Highway 36 corridor by mid afternoon. This would yield cooler
highs over northern Missouri, but keep temperatures and heat
indices near heat advisory criteria for locations along and
south of Interstate 70 through Tuesday afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning with the frontal passage. The front should be
completely through the region by Wednesday morning, with cooler
temperatures moving in behind it, offering a welcome reprieve
from the heat for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Currently VFR with southeasterly winds between 5 and 10 knots at
the terminals. Showers and a few thunderstorms may develop later
this morning, but these should remain south of the terminals.
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Winds
should turn southerly by later this morning, increasing with
gusts up to 20 to 22 knots through the afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ001>008-011>016-020>023-028>030-037-043.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW