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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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759 FXUS63 KEAX 180456 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry conditions expected (>95%) through the end of the work week. - Rain chances commence this weekend and continue, off and on, through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper ridging over the Intermountain West and anomalously strong troughing over the Great Lakes region. Water vapor imagery also showed a shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will influence our weather this weekend. Through the northern and central Plains and Upper Midwest, a strong surface high pressure area was dominating, resulting in the unseasonably cool (pleasant for mid July) conditions across the area. This trend will persist through the end of the work week (Friday night) leading to continued pleasant and dry weather conditions. For this weekend, the aforementioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest, will move over the ridge and then southeast into the middle of the country. As this occurs, precipitation chances will increase into the 30-50% range from basically early Saturday morning into the middle of next week as the shortwave cuts off of from the upper-level flow and meanders across the central and southern Plains. Mean 500mb height anomalies show this low is about 1 standard deviation below normal for this time of year, which is only slightly unusual. But the end result will be a continuation of the cooler than normal temperatures, which for this time of year is in the upper 80s, with off and on/ isolated to scattered daily showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions through the period with light northeast winds. Isolated-scattered cumulus from 15Z Thursday-00Z Friday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...BT