963
FXUS63 KEAX 202056
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower activity and below normal temperatures through
  Monday. Severe weather is not expected.

- Warmer conditions return the later half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Well-defined shortwave trough provided a concentrated area of light
rain this morning into the early afternoon. This has helped keep
abundant cloud cover across the CWA, aiding in below normal
temperatures primarily in the 70s. Main window of ascent continues
to push south, leaving in its wake the expectation of only
widely scattered showers for the remainder of the evening/tonight.
Ensembles show some signal for another round of increased shower
activity during the day Sunday as the upper trough axis passes
overhead. Thereafter, a broad trough remains over the central CONUS
Monday into Tuesday, but overall trends have pointed to decreased
shower activity. Strong to severe weather is unlikely, with the
environment characterized by meager instability and weak winds
through the column. At best, a few convective elements may promote a
few lightning strikes. As for temperatures, look for readings to
remain below normal Sunday and Monday with the additional
clouds/showers. An elongated upper ridge axis begins to build into
the High Plains and Upper Midwest by middle to late week, with
temperatures beginning to return to normal to slightly above normal
levels, along with a drier pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions expected. Period of light rain impacting terminals
through 19Z, trending to widely scattered showers through sunset
before mostly dry weather is expected. Cigs should remain around
10kft through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair