759
FXUS63 KEAX 180456
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry conditions expected (>95%) through the end of the
work week.

- Rain chances commence this weekend and continue, off and on,
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and anomalously strong troughing
over the Great Lakes region. Water vapor imagery also showed a
shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will influence our
weather this weekend. Through the northern and central Plains and
Upper Midwest, a strong surface high pressure area was
dominating, resulting in the unseasonably cool (pleasant for
mid July) conditions across the area. This trend will persist
through the end of the work week (Friday night) leading to
continued pleasant and dry weather conditions.

For this weekend, the aforementioned shortwave over the Pacific
Northwest, will move over the ridge and then southeast into the
middle of the country. As this occurs, precipitation chances will
increase into the 30-50% range from basically early Saturday morning
into the middle of next week as the shortwave cuts off of from the
upper-level flow and meanders across the central and southern
Plains. Mean 500mb height anomalies show this low is about 1
standard deviation below normal for this time of year, which is
only slightly unusual. But the end result will be a
continuation of the cooler than normal temperatures, which for
this time of year is in the upper 80s, with off and on/
isolated to scattered daily showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions through the period with light northeast winds.
Isolated-scattered cumulus from 15Z Thursday-00Z Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT