385
FXUS63 KEAX 191700
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Pleasant weather expected today

-On and off chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist
 Saturday through Tuesday with below normal temperatures. Severe
 weather is not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very quiet weather is expected to persist today. We remain between
troughing to the the east and ridging to the west allowing for
northwest flow. Surface winds will gradually shift back to the south
today as a surface high drifts to the northeast of the forecast
area. Despite the southerly shift in the winds, temperatures will
remain below normal this afternoon with highs topping out in the low
80s. Normal highs this time of year are in the upper 80s, so these
highs are 5-10 degrees below normal.

After that, our attention turn to our next approaching system which
dives south out of the northern Plains. The low becomes cut off and
stalls over our area through the weekend. This will lead to on and
off rain chances the next several days. Highs on Saturday will reach
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Rain chances and thunderstorms
move in early Saturday morning with continued low end chances
through the day. Similar conditions can be expected on Sunday with
the low remaining stagnant over the region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the day with highs
again being near 80 degrees. Severe weather looks unlikely at this
time with cape and shear values looking minimal.

Heading into the work week the cut off low lingers in our our
forecast keeping conditions similar for Monday with highs near 80
and lingering rain chances. Tuesday we will finally see a slow shift
in the upper pattern as the cut off low becomes an open wave. Rain
chances gradually move out of the forecast area Tuesday into
Wednesday, with cooler temperatures sticking around for one more
day. On Wednesday the wave shifts to our east with broadscale
troughing now centered over the Great Lakes and ridging over the
western US. Northwest flow returns to the forecast area for a brief
period before the ridging to our west gradually shifts toward the
forecast area for the latter half of the week. This leads to a
warming trend with near normal temperatures finally returning by
Thursday and Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions through the period with virtually no change to
surface winds. Afternoon cumulus field should dissipate shortly
after sunset, with thick cirrus moving in.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Blair