134
FXUS63 KEAX 210651
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
151 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low end chances for isolated to scattered showers today with
lesser chances Monday and Tuesday

-Temperatures well below normal through Tuesday

-Warmer conditions return for the second half of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Light shower activity is the main story of the forecast for the next
several days as a cut-off upper low meanders over the forecast area.
Best area of lift has shifted out of the area overnight so expected
most to stay dry, but can`t totally rule out a few passing showers.
Heading into the day time hours, expect continued rain chances,
although minor (<30%). During the day the cut-off low looks to
become an open wave with its axis very slowly sliding through our
forecast area. This keeps precip chances around, but as stated
before, think a majority of the area should stay dry. As far as
temperatures go, cool and cloudy conditions stick around with most
reaching the upper 70s to near 80. For reference normal  highs for
late July are in the upper 80s to near 90 so we are looking at
nearly 10 degrees below normal.

On Monday and Tuesday we will see a very similar forecast with the
wave remaining situated in the vicinity of the forecast area. This
will allow for continued low end precipitation chances along will
keeping things on the cool side for another few days. On Monday and
Tuesday, chances look lesser than previous forecasts with models
now indicating best rain chances outside of the forecast area. Still
think minor PoPs of around 20% or less can be expected through
this period. Again, most will likely stay dry. Severe weather is
not expected with any of this activity the next several days
with minimal instability (especially for July). Thunder chances
even look minimal given how meager instability looks. Outside of
precip chances temperatures may warm slightly Monday and
Tuesday but still will be below normal in the mid 80s each day.

For the rest of the forecast troughing over the eastern US gradually
shift east and broad ridging to our west builds. Temperatures will
build with near 90 expected for the second half of the week. Mainly
dry weather is expected for the end of the week heading into the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration for the TAF
period. Ceilings are expected to remain through the TAF period
hovering around 5Kft with brief periods of MVFR possible. Winds are
expected to come from the east direction tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Collier