482
FXUS63 KEAX 062315
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms are possible this evening in NW Missouri. An
  isolated strong storm producing large hail or damaging winds
  is possible.

- Additional storms are possible Sunday into Monday.  These storms
are not expected to be severe.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected much of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the southern
Mississippi Valley is expected to migrate east leading to increasing
southerly flow. A series of phased short waves across the
Northern Plains have lead to areas of convection across eastern
Nebraska and eastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. This
wave to the south may lead to showers and thunderstorms across
northern Missouri this evening, mainly in northwest Missouri
where CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km effective shear is 30-35
knots. This may result in enough organization to produce a
marginally strong to severe storm with large hail or damaging
winds.

Low level jet develops across the central plains tonight
transporting moisture north from eastern TX/Oklahoma into central
KS.  CAMs develop some storms develop within the mass convergence in
central Kansas, that gradually weaken toward daybreak in eastern KS.

Tough forecast on Sunday with the lack of focus as low level
moisture continues to build under a weakly capped atmosphere. Upper
level support remains through the day as upper level jet streak from
eastern KS builds  into the western Great Lakes. Precipitable water
values increase to near 1.75"- near the 90th percentile for the
date.  In general, it appears that convection will have a mean storm
motion around 25 knots, so despite lowered flash flood guidance with
wet conditions as of late, precipitation amounts generally look to
be less than half an inch with locally higher amounts.

Low level jet increases through the evening hours on Sunday, with
mass convergence across the area.  Cloud cover and weakly capped
atmosphere throughout the day on Sunday is somewhat self limiting,
and the slight increase in shear Sunday night will likely not be
fully realized.

Long-standing mid level trough remains across the central US through
mid week as hurricane Beryl makes landfall in eastern TX and pushes
north before eventually getting wrapped into the flow across
northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.  With upper level support
remaining across the region through Tuesday, can`t entirely rule out
the chance of a pop up storm though the bulk of the convection looks
to be closely tied to the remnants of Beryl.

Temperatures look to be largely seasonal this next week, with the
greatest uncertainty on Sunday into Monday when convection and
clouds may lower expectations some.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Diurnal cu lingers around KC TAF sites, with a distant MCS
causing the introduction of some higher clouds going into the
overnight. Primary concerns for any prevailing weather
conditions overnight is in KSTJ, as the MCS looks to clip this
TAF site for a few hours as it progresses eastward. Keeping the
tag at VCTS with this in mind. Else, next introduction of cloud
ceilings will be tomorrow afternoon, with lowering decks and
increased coverage as precipitation enters the forecast. Timing
remains uncertain for the onset of any precipitation, so keeping
it out of the forecast until confidence increases in
timing/intensity/coverage. Overall, winds expected to shift
towards the southwest by tomorrow afternoon, with a brief wind
shift at KSTJ as a result of the MCS outflow boundary overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...SPG/HB