![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
482 FXUS63 KEAX 062315 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are possible this evening in NW Missouri. An isolated strong storm producing large hail or damaging winds is possible. - Additional storms are possible Sunday into Monday. These storms are not expected to be severe. - Seasonal temperatures are expected much of the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Surface high pressure over the southern Mississippi Valley is expected to migrate east leading to increasing southerly flow. A series of phased short waves across the Northern Plains have lead to areas of convection across eastern Nebraska and eastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. This wave to the south may lead to showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri this evening, mainly in northwest Missouri where CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km effective shear is 30-35 knots. This may result in enough organization to produce a marginally strong to severe storm with large hail or damaging winds. Low level jet develops across the central plains tonight transporting moisture north from eastern TX/Oklahoma into central KS. CAMs develop some storms develop within the mass convergence in central Kansas, that gradually weaken toward daybreak in eastern KS. Tough forecast on Sunday with the lack of focus as low level moisture continues to build under a weakly capped atmosphere. Upper level support remains through the day as upper level jet streak from eastern KS builds into the western Great Lakes. Precipitable water values increase to near 1.75"- near the 90th percentile for the date. In general, it appears that convection will have a mean storm motion around 25 knots, so despite lowered flash flood guidance with wet conditions as of late, precipitation amounts generally look to be less than half an inch with locally higher amounts. Low level jet increases through the evening hours on Sunday, with mass convergence across the area. Cloud cover and weakly capped atmosphere throughout the day on Sunday is somewhat self limiting, and the slight increase in shear Sunday night will likely not be fully realized. Long-standing mid level trough remains across the central US through mid week as hurricane Beryl makes landfall in eastern TX and pushes north before eventually getting wrapped into the flow across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. With upper level support remaining across the region through Tuesday, can`t entirely rule out the chance of a pop up storm though the bulk of the convection looks to be closely tied to the remnants of Beryl. Temperatures look to be largely seasonal this next week, with the greatest uncertainty on Sunday into Monday when convection and clouds may lower expectations some. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Diurnal cu lingers around KC TAF sites, with a distant MCS causing the introduction of some higher clouds going into the overnight. Primary concerns for any prevailing weather conditions overnight is in KSTJ, as the MCS looks to clip this TAF site for a few hours as it progresses eastward. Keeping the tag at VCTS with this in mind. Else, next introduction of cloud ceilings will be tomorrow afternoon, with lowering decks and increased coverage as precipitation enters the forecast. Timing remains uncertain for the onset of any precipitation, so keeping it out of the forecast until confidence increases in timing/intensity/coverage. Overall, winds expected to shift towards the southwest by tomorrow afternoon, with a brief wind shift at KSTJ as a result of the MCS outflow boundary overnight. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...SPG/HB