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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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452 FXUS63 KEAX 070759 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures with scattered storms possible today, severe weather is not expected. - Precipitation chances shift to the east Monday with the remnants of Beryl clipping the area on Tuesday. - Hot and humid conditions becoming more likely next weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The weather pattern for today is very nebulous with ill-defined features to try and key on for any potential area that may be more likely to see precipitation over another area. Given the nebulous nature to the pattern, have leaned more heavily into ensembles for today`s PoPs and incorporated the HREF probabilities into the forecast. This depicts PoPs increasing during the afternoon hours to near the 50% range and then becoming likely, mainly in our eastern zones, after 00Z tonight. Aggregating PoPs into longer periods of time, 3 to 6 hour periods, rather than 1 hour periods, shows potentially a better trend for locations. Earlier in the day, the most likely areas to see precipitation would be eastern KS and western MO with about 60% chance. This shifts east with time today moving into the eastern half of the forecast area after 00Z. Overall, with increased cloud cover keeping temperatures cooler than normal, potential instability looks relatively weak and lack of stronger mid and upper-level flow keeps shear relatively low. HREF shows low probabilities of SBCAPE >1500 and 0-6km shear >30kts across the forecast area today. Given the poor key parameters, the threat of severe weather looks low. The HREF shows precipitable water values generally in the 1.5 to 1.7" range so showers and storms that do develop may produce locally heavy rain amounts. HREF probabilities of 6 hour rainfall exceeding 1" in this afternoon are most likely across north central to northeastern MO where there is generally a 40 to 50% probability of exceedance. For Monday, the general trend is to shift things to the east as models show the weak boundary shifting east. HREF probabilities of greater than 0.01" show this trend well with the highest probabilities across our eastern zones and points east through Monday evening. Models show the remnants of Beryl likely moving through southeastern MO. This shows up well plotting the probability of MSLP less than 1008 MB. With the low trending fairly close to the forecast area, there is a chance we`ll see some impacts with showers and potentially a few storms in our eastern zones. However, when looking probabilities of higher rain amounts, the swath of heavy rains remains to our east. So our area seems more likely to see the cloud shield of Beryl`s remnants rather than the heaviest rains, which are far more likely from southern MO through east central MO, northeast of the surface low. For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, the upper pattern begins to shift with the persistent upper trough over the area weakening and shift east. This will allow the strong upper ridge, that has been baking the western US, to start to build eastward. This allows temperatures to start climbing in response. By Saturday and Sunday, highs are likely to climb into the middle 90s. Temperatures continue to climb into next week with nearly a 40% chance of exceeding 95 degrees by Monday and Tuesday. Ensembles also show low probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees during this time frame as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Showers and storms near KSTJ will move off towards the east and help clear out all TAF sites going into the overnight and morning tomorrow. A wind shift out of the southwest will occur by the afternoon tomorrow, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms once again. CAMs have continuously disagreed on the coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation tomorrow, but the confidence of precipitation occurring at all TAF sites sometime tomorrow afternoon remains consistent across previous forecasts. As such, have elected to place a PROB30 group around 18z to loosely account for the best development of rain showers for the area. Closer to the time of thunderstorm development, there may be greater confidence in timing of exact storm modes and impacts to TAF sites, but unfortunately this has not improved since the last TAF issuance. Otherwise, after this precipitation exits tomorrow around 0z, expecting ceilings to lift once more with winds remaining out of the southwest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...SPG/CDB