197
FXUS63 KEAX 071112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures with scattered storms possible
  today. Severe weather is not expected.

- Precipitation chances shift to the east Monday with the
  remnants of Beryl clipping the area on Tuesday.

- Hot and humid conditions becoming more likely next weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The weather pattern for today is very nebulous with ill-defined
features to try and key on for any potential area that may be more
likely to see precipitation over another area. Given the nebulous
nature to the pattern, have leaned more heavily into ensembles for
today`s PoPs and incorporated the HREF probabilities into the
forecast. This depicts PoPs increasing during the afternoon hours to
near the 50% range and then becoming likely, mainly in our eastern
zones, after 00Z tonight. Aggregating PoPs into longer periods of
time, 3 to 6 hour periods, rather than 1 hour periods, shows
potentially a better trend for locations. Earlier in the day, the
most likely areas to see precipitation would be eastern KS and
western MO with about 60% chance. This shifts east with time today
moving into the eastern half of the forecast area after 00Z.
Overall, with increased cloud cover keeping temperatures cooler than
normal, potential instability looks relatively weak and lack of
stronger mid and upper-level flow keeps shear relatively low.
HREF shows low probabilities of SBCAPE >1500 and 0-6km shear
>30kts across the forecast area today. Given the poor key
parameters, the threat of severe weather looks low. The HREF
shows precipitable water values generally in the 1.5 to 1.7"
range so showers and storms that do develop may produce locally
heavy rain amounts. HREF probabilities of 6 hour rainfall
exceeding 1" in this afternoon are most likely across north
central to northeastern MO where there is generally a 40 to 50%
probability of exceedance.

For Monday, the general trend is to shift things to the east as
models show the weak boundary shifting east. HREF probabilities of
greater than 0.01" show this trend well with the highest
probabilities across our eastern zones and points east through
Monday evening. Models show the remnants of Beryl likely moving
through southeastern MO. This shows up well plotting the probability
of MSLP less than 1008 MB. With the low trending fairly close to the
forecast area, there is a chance we`ll see some impacts with showers
and potentially a few storms in our eastern zones. However, when
looking probabilities of higher rain amounts, the swath of heavy
rains remains to our east. So our area seems more likely to see the
cloud shield of Beryl`s remnants rather than the heaviest rains,
which are far more likely from southern MO through east central MO,
northeast of the surface low.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, the upper
pattern begins to shift with the persistent upper trough over the
area weakening and shifting east. This will allow the strong
upper ridge that has been baking the western US to start to
build eastward. This allows temperatures to start climbing in
response. By Saturday and Sunday, highs are likely to climb into
the middle 90s. Temperatures continue to climb into next week
with nearly a 40% chance of exceeding 95 degrees by Monday and
Tuesday. Ensembles also show low probabilities of exceeding 100
degrees during this time frame as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Confidence is improving regarding precipitation chances today
at the TAF sites. Short-term models are beginning to converge
on the 18z to 00z time frame for the best chances of showers and
storms at the terminals (roughly 50 to 60 percent). In
addition, models are trending for increased coverage versus
prior runs as well, suggesting probabilities may increase
further during this time frame. With this in mind, included
VCTS at the TAF sites during the 18z to 00z time window, though
it is unlikely storms will affect a specific terminal for this
entire duration. TAF amendments are expected once timing becomes
more certain/precise. Storms look to shift east of the KC and
St. Joseph area after 00z, so confidence is reasonably high that
conditions will be dry tonight. Mainly VFR is expected outside
of any storms, with winds becoming south or southwest around 10
kt today. Winds will become light and somewhat variable tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS