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FXUS63 KEAX 071946
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible lat this afternoon into this evening
with the greatest focus along and south of a line from KC to
Kirksville.  Storms are generally expected to remain below severe
limits, but could see locally heavy rainfall with training.

- Additional storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday across
central Missouri as remnants of tropical storm Beryl move north.

- Warming trend with highs back in the 90s and potential heat
  index values in excess of 100F late this week into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Abbreviated discussion today due to ongoing convection.

Clusters of thunderstorms developing in very weakly capped
environment mainly along and south of a line from Kansas City to
Kirksville.  This area is located in the right rear quadrant of a
jet streak lifting off to the northeast.  A second jet streak is
expected to develop across central into southern Missouri this
evening, with upper level divergence mainly focused across central
Missouri.  The net result will be a south and eastward trend to the
convection with time.  Wind shear generally remains weak (> 30 knots
effective shear) so storms by and large should remain sub-severe.
Mean storm motion is around 25 knots, but training of storms within
environment of 1.5+" precipitable water could lead to locally heavy
rainfall.

Expect a bulk of the region to remain dry on Monday as weak high
pressure noses into the region from the northern plains.  The
remnants of Beryl are trending farther west with each model run.
Given this trend, have increase pops Monday night across central
Missouri.  With the tropical connection, will need to keep an eye on
the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Developing upper level ridge across the west expands eastward
throughout the week leading to a warming trend.  With that said,
there are a series of ridge riders that are expected to move through
in the mean flow, potentially serving as focusing mechanisms for
thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tough forecast with weak forcing within an unstable environment.
Scattered thunderstorms expected through the afternooon into the
evening hours. It appears convection has developed along an
elevated boundary from Kansas City to Kirksville. Given the
boundary is expected to sag south and east with time, have
excluded thunderstorm mention in areas north of the boundary
(though some CAMs suggest the potential for storms farther to
the northwest). Light southerly winds are expected to become
more west or north behind the weak boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT