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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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453 FXUS63 KEAX 052315 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 615 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures expected through the weekend with below normal lows tonight. - Rain chances return to the region Saturday night, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Surface high pressure across western Kansas is leading to a well needed respite to the active weather as of late. Dry air mass with dew point in the upper 50s-lower 60s and clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to fall back into the lower 60s, about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Surface ridge across the region tomorrow morning gradually shift east with return flow increasing throughout the day. As it does south, southerly winds increase, but moisture is slow to increase as it has to build into the region from the southern plains. As such, Saturday will be a fairly pleasant summer day across the region with dew points in the lower 60s. Short wave moving from the western Dakotas on Saturday is expected to move into the Upper Midwest Saturday night. As it builds into the region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly north in portions of the Upper Midwest, mainly north of the forecast area. Could see this area of convection build southward Saturday night as low level jet helps transport low level warm air and moisture northward. This may lead to the development of elevated non-severe thunderstorms mainly across northern and central Missouri. Moisture and low level warm air continues to build across the region on Sunday as a series of weak waves move through the region. This could lead to additional shower and thunderstorm activity about the region, but mid-level wind shear appears to be quite limited leading to limited severe potential but could lead to slow storm motions. Precipitable water approaches 2" by late later in the day on Sunday as potential boundary approaches from the north. With boundary shifting southward, could see some training along the front in an environment with deep warm cloud depths potentially leading to locally heavy rainfall. Slow moving evolving pattern is expected to keep mid-level troughiness through at least the early portions of next week across the central US as remnants of tropical storm Beryl builds northward into Texas. This system is expected to lift northeast into the Tennessee Valley late week, but may lead to a slowly changing pattern next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Some lingering diurnal cu remains at all TAF sites, but guidance is increasingly favoring clouds clearing out going into the overnight. Precipitation off to the west continues to dissipate, so keeping mentions of precipitation out of TAFs. Winds will calm and shift from the northwest towards the west/southwest throughout the forecast period. Winds will continue to shift towards the south going into tomorrow with building high pressure. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...SPG/Pesel