586
ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon from northeast Colorado into far eastern Wyoming and
adjacent far western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern early Thursday will likely be characterized by an
expansive upper ridge extending from the Southwest into western
Canada and an upper trough extending from western Ontario int the
Mid MS Valley. The western ridging is expected to persist throughout
the period, while the eastern troughing deamplifies as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses eastward across Ontario, the Lower Great
Lakes and New England.

The surface pattern will likely feature a strong high over the Upper
Midwest Thursday morning, with this high expected to gradually shift
eastward throughout the day. A cold front is expected along the
southern and eastern periphery of this high, beginning the period
extended from NJ southwestward across the TN Valley and Mid-South
into north TX. Some modest southeasterly/southerly progress of this
front is possible throughout the day, but it is also expected to
become increasingly diffuse. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
possible along this boundary, but weak vertical shear should limit
the severe potential.

Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated along the western
periphery of this surface ridging, combining with daytime heating to
provide airmass destabilization. Low-level convergence along the lee
trough may result in convective initiation from northeast CO into
far eastern WY and adjacent far western SD and the NE Panhandle.
Belt of moderate mid-level flow extending across the region will
help support enough vertical shear for storm organization and the
potential for a few severe storms capable of damaging gusts.

..Mosier.. 07/16/2024

$$