955
ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
VERMONT/WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Carolinas into New England on Wednesday, with a corridor of greater
coverage from northeast Virginia into the Hudson Valley and adjacent
southern Vermont/western Massachusetts. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains as well.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend from Ontario through the Upper
Midwest early Wednesday morning, before gradually shifting eastward
throughout the day and ending the period extended from western
Quebec into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend
through the southern and eastern periphery of this upper trough,
stretching from the OH Valley into the Northeast throughout the
period. Surface low attendant to this upper trough will likely be
over Quebec early Wednesday, with an extensive cold front stretching
from this low southwestward into the northern portions of the
southern Plains. This front is forecast to progress eastward across
the Northeast, southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys, and
southward across the southern Plains throughout the day. A moist and
buoyant airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are
likely as it progresses downstream.

Farther west, an extensive upper ridge is forecast to extend from
the Southwest into western Canada early Wednesday morning. This
ridging is expected to remain in place throughout the period,
fostering a corridor of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft from
eastern MT into the central Plains, between the aforementioned upper
troughing and the upper ridge. Scattered thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated throughout the periphery of this ridge, including some
strong to severe storms across the central High Plains.

...Much of the East Coast...
Upper 60s to low 70s will precede the southeastward/eastward
progressing cold front expected to move into the region during the
afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along
this front as it move into the moist and diurnally destabilized
airmass downstream. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor and profiles
will be relatively warm. Even so, temperatures in the 90s amid
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will still result in moderate
buoyancy, with afternoon MLCAPE likely ranging from 1500 J/kg over
southern New England to 2500 J/kg across the Carolinas.

This instability will be sufficient for robust updrafts, although
updraft organization will likely be limited to areas from the
Mid-Atlantic northward where mid-level flow will be stronger,
supporting greater vertical shear. As such, a predominantly
multicellular, outflow-dominant structure is anticipated from the TN
Valley into the GA and the Carolinas. To the north and east of these
areas (where the shear is greater), a more organized storm mode is
possible, supporting bowing line segments capable of damaging gusts.
Highest coverage of strong to severe storms is expected from
northeast VA into the Hudson Valley and adjacent southern VT and
western MA.

...Central High Plains...
Numerous thunderstorms appear likely across the central Rockies,
supported by increased mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow
within the eastern periphery of the extensive upper ridge covering
the western CONUS. Post-frontal upslope flow will bring favorable
low-level moisture into the central High Plains. Isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may result as storms move off the higher
terrain into the moderately moist and buoyant airmass downstream.
High cloud bases will support strong outflow, with damaging gusts as
the primary severe threat. Isolated hail is possible closer to the
high terrain.

..Mosier.. 07/16/2024

$$