229
FNUS22 KWNS 111909
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA...

A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest
NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the
upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be
impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating
Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this
feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds
above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is
reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %)
probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH
values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted.

Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased
for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper
trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies.
Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is
most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under
similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection
will pose a fire weather concern.

..Moore.. 08/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the
northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface
boundary into the Northwest.

Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface
boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along
with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be
enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well.
Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH
will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is
expected.

Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the
trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for
isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm
motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry
if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$