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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
229 FNUS22 KWNS 111909 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$