172
ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska
with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have
shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving
boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization
does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more
information.

The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with
thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado.
Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the
damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578
and Watch #489 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/

...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS...
Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed
max approach.  Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday,
with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon
storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ.  Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few
supercell structures capable of large hail.  As the storms build
eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk
of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western
NE/KS.

...Central Plains to IN/MI...
A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL
into parts of IN/Lower MI.  Morning visible imagery shows pockets of
strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level
lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present.  Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary
later today.  Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for
some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures
capable of damaging wind gusts.  From IN southwestward, weak
steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with
occasional intense downdrafts.

...NC...
TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC.  A large
shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating,
and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong.
Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest
updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation
center.  A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any
more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over
eastern NC.

$$