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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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133 ACUS01 KWNS 070602 SWODY1 SPC AC 070600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 $$