


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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172 ACUS01 KWNS 061944 SWODY1 SPC AC 061942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. $$