871
ACUS01 KWNS 080054
SWODY1
SPC AC 080053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible from the middle to upper Texas
Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches
the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe
thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across parts
of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and in portions of the
southern Plains.

...Eastern Colorado/Northeastern New Mexico...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
central High Plains. At the surface, upslope flow is in place across
much of eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the
50s F. From near the Palmer Divide southward into northeastern New
Mexico, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of instability
in the lee of the higher terrain. Wind shear within this corridor is
sampled by the Pueblo WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km near 55 knots,
owing to an abrupt east-to-west shift in the winds near 2 km AGL.
This will help storms to remain organized, supporting a continued
severe threat for much of the evening. The more intense cells should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Southern Plains...
A large-scale upper-level trough is located across the southern and
central Plains, according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a
cold front is situated from west Texas east-northeastward into
southern Oklahoma, with thunderstorms ongoing along and near the
boundary. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP
near the front, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range. The Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30
knots, with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 3 Km
AGL. This should continue to be favorable for a severe threat this
evening, as cells generally move southeastward across the southern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Southwest Louisiana...
Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
move inland across the middle Texas Coast late tonight. Ahead of
Beryl`s center, bands of moderate to heavy rain will overspread the
middle to upper Texas Coast. Strong low-level shear associated with
Beryl will likely support a tornado threat, mainly if semi-discrete
rotating cells can form within the more well-developed rainbands.
The greatest tornado threat is expected late tonight over the middle
to upper Texas Coast as the northeastern quadrant of Beryl moves
inland.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2024

$$