851
ACUS01 KWNS 080556
SWODY1
SPC AC 080555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from far east Texas into northwest Louisiana
and far southwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will also be
possible in Far West Texas.

...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to move inland across the middle
to upper Texas Coast this morning. Rainbands in associated with
Beryl will overspread much of east Texas and western Louisiana
during the day as the cyclone moves northward across east Texas. The
northeast quadrant of Beryl is forecast to move into a moderately
unstable airmass across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late
afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana from
21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to
400 m2/s2 range, and have large looping hodographs. In addition, the
HRRR solution suggests that semi-discrete cells will develop within
the eastern most rainband of Beryl. This, combined with the strong
low-level shear, should be favorable for rotating storms capable of
producing tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat is expected to
coincide with the strongest instability, which should peak during
the 17Z and 01Z temporal window. An isolated tornado threat should
continue through the evening and into the overnight period as the
remnants of Beryl moves into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Far West Texas...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas
today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface
dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As
surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass,
MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range.
Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the
afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. In
addition to the instability, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km
lapse rates into the 8 to 8.5 C/km range by late afternoon. This,
combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear, should be enough
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be
the primary threats.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/08/2024

$$