844
ACUS01 KWNS 060058
SWODY1
SPC AC 060057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and a few strong wind gusts will
be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico and the northern High
Plains.

...Eastern New Mexico...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
southern High Plains. An axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
the western edge of the stronger instability, and these storms are
forecast to move southeastward across the remainder of eastern New
Mexico this evening. Forecast soundings over the next few hours show
moderate deep-layer shear throughout much of eastern New Mexico,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates generally between 7 and 7.5 C/km.
Rotating cells capable of hail will be possible within this
environment this evening. A few strong wind gusts could also occur.
So far, the severe threat coverage has been less than expected,
suggesting that a Marginal Risk will be sufficient.

...Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery
across eastern Montana. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms
are being supported by an area of large-scale ascent. The storms
will continue to move eastward into an unstable airmass over far
western North Dakota this evening, where MLCAPE is estimated by the
RAP in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is on
the weak side, forecast soundings in western North Dakota suggest
the 0-3 km lapse rates could be near 8 C/km in a some areas. This
environment could support a few strong wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible.

..Broyles.. 07/06/2024

$$