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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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822 ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. $$