200
ACUS01 KWNS 051643
SWODY1
SPC AC 051641

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early
evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the
Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the
primary severe hazard.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians...
Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and
modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward
toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary,
although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward
extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength
westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early
evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and
far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee.

Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe
storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the
southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail
threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the
upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with
steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts
will be the main severe risk overall.

...Eastern New Mexico...
The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger
northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope
flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated
storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to
mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of
storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few
supercell structures.  Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the
stronger thunderstorms.

...Montana...
A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern
Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana,
and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample
heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few
strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally
severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early
evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening.

..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024

$$