Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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229 ACUS01 KWNS 171622 SWODY1 SPC AC 171621 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts appear most likely and concentrated today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central/southern New England. Other severe storms may affect parts of the central High Plains. ...Northeast States... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies from northern VA northeastward into eastern PA/southeast NY and much of New England. This corridor is quite moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s, and should become moderately unstable this afternoon with pockets of MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. A consensus of 12z models show scattered thunderstorm development across the region - especially focused from eastern PA into southeast NY. Broad southwesterly mid-level winds in the 35-45 knot range will help to organize storms and support multiple rounds of potentially severe wind gusts. Storms will track across southern New England and into eastern MA/NH and southern ME by evening. Coverage of convection farther south across NJ/DE/MD/VA is expected to be a little lower, but will still be capable of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to build eastward off the foothills of the CO Front Range. Isolated strong/severe storms are possible with locally damaging gusts and some hail the main risks. Most 12z HREF members show a cluster of more organized and intense storms building off of the Palmer Ridge into northeast CO. The potential for more organized outflow and greater coverage of intense storms has prompted the addition of a small SLGT. ...TX... A large cloud shield associated with remnant convection is present today across parts of OK/AR and central TX. Strong heating to the south of these clouds and near remnant outflow boundaries will promote afternoon thunderstorm development. Hot/humid conditions and steep low-level lapse rates could result in gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/17/2024 $$