952
ACUS01 KWNS 140052
SWODY1
SPC AC 140051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley tonight.

...01z Update...

Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved
across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this
evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN
has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing
southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into
an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later
this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across
northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this
convection.

Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from
the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This
scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal
coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the
upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into
northern/central WI late tonight.

Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells
have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT.
Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast
along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest
SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some
influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an
upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening.
Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however,
severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops
with the surging MCS.

..Darrow.. 07/14/2024

$$