335
ACUS01 KWNS 150100
SWODY1
SPC AC 150059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening through
tonight.

...North Dakota...
Convection migrating into northwest ND continues to gradually
intensify as it moves into a more buoyant air mass (depicted well by
the 00 UTC BIS RAOB). Recent forecast guidance has captured this
trend well and suggests that upscale growth into a more organized
cluster/line is probable later tonight along a diffuse baroclinic
zone draped across central to southeast ND with an attendant severe
wind threat, including the potential for 75+ mph gusts. Prior to
upscale growth, discrete supercells across northwest/north-central
ND will likely pose a significant hail threat given ample buoyancy
and elongated hodographs featuring 50 knots of effective bulk shear.
See MCD #1620 for additional short-term details.

...Midwest...
Across the Midwest, mostly clear skies and southwesterly low-level
flow has allowed for some air mass recovery from eastern IL into
central IN in the wake of a prior MCS. A developing thunderstorm
cluster across northern IL/southern WI is expected to grow upscale
and propagate to the southeast overnight, and should primarily pose
a severe wind risk (see MCD #1621 for short-term details). The
anticipated MCS should weaken as it traverses central IN and
migrates into the cold pool of an earlier MCS across OH.

..Moore.. 07/15/2024

$$