657
FNUS21 KWNS 141545
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

The previous forecast remains on track based on morning observations
and latest guidance. Isolated thunderstorms remain likely after 00
UTC across far northern CA, spreading into central and eastern OR
through 12 UTC Thursday. Pockets of wetting rainfall are possible,
but PWAT values around 0.75 inches and storm motions between 20-25
knots should support the potential for sporadic dry lightning
strikes over a region with dry fuels. Other forecast concerns
outlined in the previous discussion below remain valid.

..Moore.. 08/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern
California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing
with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms.
The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions
of northern California and southern Oregon.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant
parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C,
leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential
across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough
should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm
development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive
fuels.

...Dry/Windy...
The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather
conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to
diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for
highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$